First, Egypt is a key American ally in the Middle East, and, conspiracy theories aside, we can be sure of the fact that there was heavy American meddling in Egypt during the protests. I am almost certain that the military’s response and Mubarrak’s careful treatment of the situation were guided by American policy, and I’m certain that the military’s current policies are heavily influenced by the United States (and by the United States’s subsidies, which partially guarantee the Egyptian government’s ability to afford bread, and other foodstuffs, rationing to the Egyptian people). What is important to remember is that the Mubarrak regime is almost completely intact, except for Mubarrak (who is replaceable) and for minor government officials.

Second, the allegiance of the Egyptian military was in question. One reason I’ve heard leans on the question of whether or not non-officers and junior officers were more sympathetic towards the protesters than towards their government and senior commanders. I’m not so sure this thesis is complete, since what it banks on (the same type of income inequality as the general population) is true of every other military in the Middle East, and their reluctance to join in the killing is more suspect (although, evidently, there is some reluctance). A more likely reason, in my opinion, is that the military was, the entire time, thinking of a way of maintaining power. They balanced on a thin line between the protesters and Mubarrak, careful not to openly oppose either, and ultimately they came out on top in terms of the power structure.

Libya, on the other hand, is influenced very lightly by the United States. In fact, it’s probably within the American’s interests to overthrow Gadaffi, or otherwise the Americans can’t really influence events enough to do anything about it. Gadaffi has more of a free hand to do what he believes is within his interests to do, and I think that the exaggerated violence is a trademark of this fact. I think Gadaffi would have reacted the same way, with or without Mubarrak’s example, and I think Mubarrak would have reacted this way had Egyptian politics been less intertwined with foreign influence.

I can’t speak for Bahrain, however, which should be a situation similar to Egypt’s.

I was personnaly hopeful and elated when the Marcos dictatorship ended – but the country is as bad off now as it ever was. So with Haiti, Iran, and countries mentioned above. what does it take?